• Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone predicts a recession could be the top catalyst to push gold prices above $2,000 per ounce.
• According to McGlone, bitcoin needs to sustain above $25,000 in order to signal divergent strength versus central banks and their tightening policies.
• A key factor that may differ this time is the Federal Reserve’s willingness to adjust its stance if the stock market experiences a sharp drop.
March Outlook by Mike McGlone
Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, shared his March outlook on commodities, precious metals, equities and bitcoin. He believes that a U.S. recession is a top catalyst that could drive gold’s price beyond $2,000 an ounce due to high chances of economic contraction from the yield curve in about 30 years and with the Federal Reserve still in tightening mode.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
McGlone questions whether or not the recent rally was hollow or an enduring recovery for bitcoin as it has never faced a U.S. recession and Fed tightening while having its 50-week moving average below 200-week. Bitcoin needs to remain above $25,000 in order for it to signal divergent strength versus central banks‘ tightening policies and swift snap-backs are typical of bear markets during such times.
Gold Price Analysis
The current week saw gold close to dropping below the $1,800 range and silver clinging just above $20 per ounce range while global cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at 1 trillion dollars after around 1% decrease over last day. The strategist believes that if bitcoin can sustain above 25k then most risk assets will bottom out but with US central bank still in tightening mode most markets have bounced back already.
Recession Chances High
McGlone has based his predictions on data which suggests highest probability of recession from three month till ten year Treasury curve since 1992 which makes chances of US sliding into recession look likely according to him . He also noted that one factor which might be different this time is willingness of Federal Reserve to adjust stance if stock market faces sharp drop off .
Conclusion
Overall Mike McGlone suggests that gold may rise beyond 2000 USD/ounce level if US slides into recession due too high chances of same however he notes that one factor which might be different this time is Fed’s willingness yo adjust stance if stock market experiences sharp drop off . Bitcoin also need sto stay aboe 25k in order fo show divergent strength vs central bank’s tightening policies .